A Little Latin

When dealing with the Big Con, a little Latin goes a long way. Here's a useful phrase: cum hoc ergo propter hoc. It means, roughly, "with this, therefore because of it." Because two things happened at the same time, one must have caused another: correlation implies causation. It's a fallacy. Just because literacy and atmospheric sulfur dioxide increased at the same time, it doesn't mean that literacy caused air pollution. A recent editorial in Barron's offers a good example of the Conservative (mis)use of "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" arguments..

Because government is bad at infrastructure, Barron's editor Thomas Donlan argues, infrastructure ought to be privatized. To show just how bad government is at infrastructure, Donlan employs a whopping cum-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc:

Whenever the economy looks shaky, highways, sewers, waterways, dams, parks, schools, power plants and power lines, schools, airports and the air-traffic-control system, even broadband communications networks are described as crumbling, overburdened and in great need of new investment. Every time, the infrastructure funding movement declares that the national economy depends on public investment in concrete projects. And every time, delayed appropriations of billions for public works hit the market just in time to set off a new round of cost-push inflation. The biggest and most beloved form of public works is the national highway system. And the collapse of an Interstate highway bridge in Minneapolis last August set off the latest round of bell-ringing. In the follow-up to the disaster, we learned hat it was one of about 75,000 bridges in the U.S. designated as structurally deficient. (It had been scheduled to be replaced in 2020.) We learned that the American Society of Civil Engineers has given U.S. infrastructure a grade of "D," trending toward a "D-minus."...... Oddly enough, however, those who want to repair the neglect also want to send vast amounts of money to the same neglectful governments that did not keep up with their responsibilities when times were good.

Donlan's argument can be broken down into two parts:
1. The American Infrastructure declined while the government controlled infrastructure.
2. Therefore, government -- as such -- is responsible for the the decline of infrastructure.

It's a seductive claim, but just as fallacious as any "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" argument. Literacy didn't cause atmospheric pollution --- capitalist modernization did. Government control, as such, didn't cause the degradation of the American infrastructure -- systemic underfunding inspired by conservative ideology did.

The difference is key.

States can create and oversee infrastructure, and they can do it just as (or more) efficiently than the private sector can. Compare the (mostly state-run) invasion of Iraq with the (mostly privatized) CPA-lead occupation. You don't have to be a Hawk to recognize the efficiency of the invading forces.

But conservatives, inspired by Norquistian [1]"Starve The Beast [2]" ideology, have systemically underfunded the national infrastructure. Starve the bridge, and it will collapse. Starve the levees, and they will break..... And once the infrastructure is all broken, claim that government was bad at infrastructure in the first place, and sell it off to private interests. What chutzpah!

P.S: The actual fallacy at work is slightly more complicated, and interesting than I let on. Drop me an email for the more detailed argument.